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Week 10 Buy or Sell Targets

Week 10 was a wild one for both real NFL and fantasy. Of the 12 games played on Sunday, seven underdogs came out victorious, including Titans overcoming the Rams, Broncos bulldozing Dak’s Cowboys and Urban’s Jaguars halting the Bills. You likely saw some pretty low scoring fantasy matchups too, with the three big hitters mentioned above, plus the Chiefs and Packers all struggling, as well as the Bucs and Seahawks both on bye.

I found myself very frustrated with my Ceedee Lamb and Mike Williams that I roster and start in my main league, which prompted me to see what sort of fantasy team you could’ve put out in week 10 to grab a huge score and a likely win. Here it is:

QB – Josh Johnson
RB – James Conner
RB – Jordan Howard
WR – Malik Turner
WR – Olamide Zaccheaus
TE – Geoff Swaim
FLEX – Donavan Peoples Jones

This team would’ve scored you easily over 120 standard points, let alone PPR or 6 point QB leagues.

I genuinely don’t know who Malik Turner is and, as someone who as the season progresses tends to know depth charts pretty well, had me baffled as to where this two-touchdown scoring machine had come from. But that is just fantasy football folks. We can draft who we like, but you just don’t know how each game is going to go. Best guesses at the ready each and every week.

What we can do however, is trade for those who we THINK are setup for success. Or trade away those who we THINK have peaked, now or in the near future.

Here’s who I THINK will be good assets this week for trading away and trading for:

Buy

Justin Fields (QB – Chicago Bears)

He might even be on your waiver wire, as he’s available in over 80% of ESPN leagues.

Over weeks 8 and 9, Fields has turned it up a notch. You can visibly see his confidence growing with each game, as well as the offensive play-calling seemingly more tailored around him instead of throwing him out there with no plan, which is what was happening the weeks prior.

Here’s just how impressive Fields has been the last two weeks:

  • 466 passing yards and 2 TDs, 64.3% completion
  • 148 rushing yards and 1 TD, on 18 attempts
  • PFF Non-RB Running Grade – 85.2 (1st)
  • PFF Passing Grade – 81.6 (2nd out of QBs with 20+ drop backs)
  • ADOT – 13.2 yards (1st)

This may not seem like a huge deal over just a two week span, but it’s a noticeable improvement and, FINALLY, we seem to see Matt Nagy calling designed run plays for him. He’s also pushing the ball downfield often to his three very talented receivers in Robinson, Mooney and tight end Kmet.

The next 8 weeks present plus matchups with Ravens, Lions, Vikings, Seattle and NY Giants. He is on bye this week, so you might even be able to grab him off your wire for free. So go get Fields ASAP, or if he’s rostered, low ball someone for one of your depth pieces.

Darnell Mooney (WR – Chicago Bears)

This is a product of Justin Fields admirable play in recent weeks, so read above.

But Mooney has absolutely emerged as Fields’ top target. Mooney has enjoyed target shares of 31%, 17%, 33% and 21% the last four weeks. In that same span he’s scored 3 touchdowns. The yardage definitely leaves a lot to be desired – 189 yards in his last four games, 452 yards on the year in 9 games, but he’s seeing WR1 target shares with an emerging QB and some plus matchups down the stretch. Mooney even ran for a touchdown this past Monday night, after lining up in a wildcat formation, check it out below:

He’s definitely being somewhat undervalued this year, 33rd ranked WR in standard scoring and available in over 50% of ESPN leagues. I can see Mooney as a poor mans Robert Woods, which is absolutely something worth rostering.

So snag Mooney for free off your wire this week while he’s on bye, then reap the rewards for the next 8 weeks. If he’s rostered, offer any depth piece you have. Heck, even offer a strong performing DST, you just never know.

Aaron Jones (RB – Green Bay Packers)

Rodgers missed week 9 after testing positive with COVID-19, so in stepped Jordan Love to lead the Packers to a resounding victory over the Kansa-nah I’m just messing. Love was horrible. The whole offence was horrible and Aaron Jones got inexplicably not featured, receiving only 12 carries and 2 targets, while playing only 63% of snaps (3rd lowest of the season).

With Rodgers out we expected a heavy dose of Jones in the passing game, with dump offs galore and a heavy run script. It even turned out to be a close game with the Chiefs continuing to struggle on offense.

If you’re reading this as a Jones owner, scratch it off and move on, just beware if Rodgers is out again this week he might repeat last weeks poor show.

If you’re reading this as a Jones buyer, now is the time to target him. Fresh off a poor game, doubts over Rodgers playing in week 10, Dillon received a healthy dose alongside him and some up and down games recently.

See if you can prize Aaron Jones away from someone in a Damien Harris/Josh Jacobs + 1 deal. Or go straight up for Michael Pittman.

Travis Kelce (TE – Kansas City Chiefs)

As I wrote last week, the Chiefs are struggling. Kelce showed well this week with 8/6/68/1, his first touchdown since week 5. He is obviously still the TE1 in fantasy, but there’s still a lot of question marks over this offense. And yes, they may continue in this ‘slump’, who knows, but Mahomes is still going to throw to Kelce a tonne and he still offers huge advantage on opposition in your TE slot.

Sell

James Conner (RB – Arizona Cardinals)

Chase Edmonds went down on the very first drive of this weeks matchup vs the 49ers. It’s since been diagnosed as a high ankle sprain, likely putting him out of action for up to 4 weeks. From there on it was the James Conner show. 173 total yards and 3 touchdowns on 26 touches and 77% snaps. He absolutely dominated.

Now, with Edmonds out for up to 4 weeks, James Connor could be a very viable fantasy RB1 for while Edmonds is out. Conner was already in charge of all the running back redzone work – no running back in fantasy has scored more touchdowns (10) or more fantasy points (68.3) than James Conner inside the 20. If he now absorbs some of Edmonds passing work and some of his rushing work between the 20s, there’s potential for huge fantasy success.

The reality however, is this was likely Conner’s best performance of the season in which he is fresh off. News is fresh about Edmonds missing time. He has been known to pick up injuries often in his time with the Steelers. Eno Benjamin is no doubt going to take carries away from Conner, as well as some receiving work. And the next three weeks presents a tough matchup with the Panthers, a much better one with the Seahawks and then a bye week. So there’s a possibility you get one great game out of him then it’s back to being a touchdown dependent RB2/RB3.

Cash in while you can on Conner, but only settle for a great deal. I’m willing to bet you could get Darrell Henderson or Alvin Kamara in a deal involving the Cardinals now RB1.

Elijah Moore (WR – NY Jets)

As I wrote in my review of TNF last week, a huge game scoring twice, but I’m skeptical of his performance and role going forward.

Zach Wilson and Corey Davis will return soon, which will take both snaps and targets away from Moore. And it’s really as simple as that.

The rookie receiver is certainly ascending, but with the uncertainty over his role over the coming weeks I’m willing to bet this is his best show of the year. Sell high ya jabronis!

Miles Sanders (RB – Philadelphia Eagles)

Miles Sanders was put on IR two weeks ago and is in line to return over the next 2 weeks, although this isn’t fully clear at this point.

Coincidentally the Philadelphia Eagles running game has exploded with Boston Scott and Jordan Howard dominating the carries.

Yes, week 8 was against the hapless Detroit Lions, and this week was against the just as hapless defensive line of the LA Chargers. But I just cannot see a world in which Miles Sanders returns fully healthy, and receives 15-20 carries a game when they’re running the ball so efficiently.

The Eagles demolished the Lions and almost took a win against the Chargers. Their focus has definitely shifted to the run game and it’s working well for them, but as mentioned above I don’t see Sanders being the workhorse. It’s going to be an committee with Hurts also running the ball a lot.

It’s not a sell high, but it’s a sell for something you can play now off the back of Sanders returning and the run game focus change over in Philly.

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