So Russell Wilson has come out and said he isn’t happy with how much he is getting hit. I mean, it is no surprise as since being drafted he has been sacked 394 times in 144 regular season games. Look at the size of the guys hitting him, it can’t be much fun!
The Seahawks went 12-4 last year and figure to challenge again in the stacked NFC West in 2021, letting go of their talisman at this point would make little sense for the Seahawks.
A swap, for someone such as Deshaun Watson, also wouldn’t make much financial sense. Seattle stand to incur $39m in dead-cap money if Wilson is dealt before June 1, he only carries a $32m cap hit next season if he stays.
Now he hasn’t said that he wants to be traded but that has not stopped the internet doing what it does best, speculating. It is also worth noting that Wilson has a no-trade clause in his contract. As the rumours start flying I thought I would have a quick look at a few to see if any have even the ring of truth to them.
Bookies currently have the following prices offered for Wilson to be traded:
3/1 – Raiders
6/1 – Cowboys
7/1 – Jaguars
8/1 – Washington
9/1 – 49ers
Now I think we can write of an in-division trade to the 49ers. That leaves four teams to look at.
Las Vegas Raiders
Derek Carr feels like one of those Quarterbacks who could be great. The problem is every time he approaches that level he dashes it just as quickly. For the 2020 example of this seen the Chiefs game compared to the Jets game. Eugh.
There are rumours doing the rounds that he could be on his way out of Vegas and I wouldn’t blame them. Now don’t get me wrong, I actually like him as a player. His 2016 season was great, honestly, go back and watch the highlights. With Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree they were exciting and much of that was down to Carr. His problem is that he seems to falter when trying to get over the average hurdle consistently.
Wilson is going to cost any team at least 2/3 first round picks plus players, a price that most will balk at. Consider that those players from this team would likely have to be Derek Carr and Darren Waller. It all adds up to Raiders fans coming down from the stars and accepting what is better for their team.
Losing your (above average) QB and a star TE plus mortgaging the future is not worth it. Yes Wilson is a legitimate superstar but he is not taking the Raiders over the hump to Superbowl glory. This team needs to continue to build, their Defence needs those 3 first round picks! If they do this then better times are ahead, even if they do have to compete in a stacked AFC West.
Verdict – No Trade
This basically comes down to a choice for Jerry Jones between Dak Prescott and Russell Wilson. Obviously it isn’t that straightforward but I guarantee to Jerry it is. How much of Dak’s failure to sign a contract last off-season was posturing to set up a larger contract this year? How much, if at all, does his injury affect those prospects? Has he pissed of Jerry?
Cost-wise there won’t be much difference between the two when all is said and done. I feel that the team who does trade for Wilson, if anyone, needs to be set up to make a run now. That window needs to last a couple of years as well as with no 1st round picks players will need to perform.
I just don’t see Dallas in that position. Whilst I have no doubt that Jerry has the balls to make the trade the team doesn’t actually need Wilson. Dak is good enough, with a team supporting him to take the Cowboys to the playoffs, maybe further. This year before going down he was carrying the team, if the team can do their part the NFC East is there for the taking.
Based on their play at times last year however I don’t see this team in the playoffs for a while. Considering their offensive weapons that is strange to say but the Defence just isn’t up to standard. Much as with the Raiders it is there that the picks should go, not Seattle.
Verdict – No Trade
Now it gets interesting. The Jags have picks to burn at the moment and if they decided, they could give up pick 1 and pick 33 this year and what I expect will be a high 1st round pick next year to go and get Wilson. Their issue is if they are giving up players I am not sure who the Seahawks would want.
Bear in mind that the Jags are already giving up Trevor Lawrence if they do this trade, a lot in itself. Player wise I think you would be looking at 2 from 3 of Laviska Shenault, Josh Allen and Myles Jack even with the high picks. Losing that talent, on a roster bereft of much else is hard.
For a team rebuilding picks are everything. Having a Superstar QB before having any other piece in place is a waste, unless it is one who can grow with the team. The Jags do like to run themselves badly but I expect this is beyond even them. Why turn down the chance to pick up the best prospect since Andrew Luck? In time Lawrence will be able to do as much for the Jags as Wilson can, it is a matter of patience.
For them building a young core of players who can grow together is the way forward. Getting Lawrence at the start of this is perfect, it gives optimal time for the team to be together before contract issues rear their head.
Verdict – No Trade
Washington Football Team
Now a team who appear to fit my win now window… I know, hear me out. They have a good receiver group and a good running back group. McLaurin and Gibson look like studs to me. They also have a Tight End who has come from nowhere to be the next surprise at the position, this years Darren Waller.
They have a Defensive line that Head Coaches dream of and they have a secondary that played better than expected last year. Even Linebacker is not a weakness in my eyes, Bostic and Holcomb look more than capable. What the Football Team need is a Quarterback to take them further than Alex Smith can, with all due respect given. Could that be Russell Wilson?
Washington snuck into the playoffs as their division was garbage this year. They were definitely the best of a bad bunch but they could be so much more. With a baller under centre this would be my dark horse for the Superbowl. Yes a very dark horse, but a horse nonetheless.
If I was in control of this I would be pitching 2 firsts to begin with. The players I am including make up for the 3rd first. I would not be giving up McLaurin or Gibson. I think Chase Young could be included only due to the strength of the rest of the D line. It would be hard to let a future All Pro walk out of the building but a necessary evil in this scenario.
So 2 firsts (I would go to 3 but don’t tell Seattle), Chase Young and Brandon Scherff would be my offer. That means resigning Scherff to trade him but Guard is a position that the Seahawks need to upgrade. That said…
Verdict – No Trade
Sorry But…He Isn’t Going Anywhere
The price is so high that only a certain kind of team will even seriously consider pulling the trigger. Yes multiple teams will call but that is the due diligence. Unless you’re the Rams selling the future for now is not a good thing. They are playing a risky game and others will wait to see if it works before following suit.
If you want a sneaky bet then I would put my money on Washington but I would put the odds of the trade at about 20% on a good day. That said I would love to see it, that Washington team would be a hard out with Russell Wilson under centre.
Back to the real world and we can all look forward to Russell Wilson stepping out on Lumen Field for the foreseeable future. The Seahawks do not want to trade their star, of this I am certain. It would take an astronomical offer for them to consider it and even then they would have to sell Wilson on it. Unless it is a team like the Chiefs or the Bucs where he can win immediately I don’t see it.
His family is settled in Seattle and he has great ties with the local community. This storm in a teacup is no more than Wilson very publicly trying to steer the Seahawks draft plans this year. No more wasted first round picks is the order of the day. I mean, how many teams starting running back was a 6th rounder whilst their 1st rounder from the following year cant even make a game day squad…..
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