Week 11, It’s Mr 4 of 5 back at you with another one. If you follow the below, take one of my five out, and replace it, and you’ll probably win. I am SO tired of missing out on a win by one leg of my bet, but sometime i’m gonna break the mould. Here we go!
Titans to cover
I’m basing this on one thing and one thing alone, and that is the beat up defensive line of the Ravens. Both Calais Campbell and Brandon Williams are expected to be sidelines, which is a problem when the freight train that is Derrick Henry rolls into town. The Ravens couldn’t stop the run to save their lives against the Patriots and the lack of Calais Campbell was very noticeable.
Expecting Derrick to have himself a day, and although it might be a close game, I like the Titans to cover the spread. Lamar has been up and down this season, and the consistency hasn’t been there. Some are saying he’s been ‘found out’. I wouldn’t go that far yet, but a close one in Baltimore today.
Miami at -3.5
The Dolphins head to Mile High this week on the back of a 5 game win streak, with what’s looking like one of the best defences in the league, and Tua 3-0 as a starter without a single turnover.
Drew Lock isn’t 100%, and the Broncos struggled horrifically last week to move the ball on offence.
Yes I know it’s mile high, and the altitude is different, but they’re 1-3 at home, so it can’t be that hard to go and get a win.
I love our match up’s today and in all honesty if the spread was -9 i’d probably still fancy it. Taking the -3.5, another good outing for the Dolphins and a win on the road.
Texans Patriots bore fest
These two teams have had some ugly outings on offence this season. The Texans managed 7 points against the Cleveland Browns last week in what was one of the poorest games i’ve seen this season.
The Patriots put together a solid win against the Ravens last weekend, but only 40 points were scored in the game, as the Patriots put together long extended drives running the ball and eating into the clock.
I expect to see some punting today, a slow start for both teams, and a casual tick in the under column at 48.5 for these two offences both lacking some serious identity. Please can we rescue Deshaun Watson soon…
Saints Falcons also with the under
The Saints are in trouble. Taysom Hill is going to step up and play quarterback, which without disrespecting Hill, is woefully embarrassing for Jameis Winston. Expect a tonne of option plays and QB runs today, which is not screaming points to me at all.
If I’m the Falcons, i’m game planning for the Saints to rely on Alvin Kamara the entire game, which should help them slow him down.
The Falcons on the other hand have Calvin Ridley back, which means it’s not exactly the best time for the Saints to be without Marshon Lattimore, who’s been ruled out.
I think the Falcons stand a chance of winning the game against a Brees less Saints team, however I like the under because of how good that Saints defence is. The Falcons have had turnover issues, they’re away against a good Saints defence, they won’t be squeaky clean.
Expecting a messy game, an ugly Saints offensive outing and thats why I love the under at 50.
And points in the Packers game
Important note, I swapped this game with the Steelers game last minute. So if that game comes in with the over, and this one doesn’t, you’ll find me diving head first off a cliff.
I like this more than the Steelers game because of the offensive power of both teams. All the Packers need is Rodgers and Davante Adams. However, you might argue the Colts of course have a very impressive defence. That they do, but they also gave up 27 points to the Bengals in a shootout. I expect a similar game to that one, which ended up with a 58 point total.
I wouldn’t like to call a winner so I’m just going to gun for points, and for Rodgers and Rivers to throw for lots of yards, resulting in a very entertaining high scoring game.
Rip if the Steelers do this now, and the Packers/Colts don’t…
A £10 cheeky returns just show of £300 large, a fair few squiddlies to play with, and we’re going to have ourselves a football sunday. Let’s get it.
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