T Law is elite. There’s a 95% chance he will continue to be elite in the NFL. There is an even higher chance that there’s a good few NFL teams willing to trade the house, and the foundations it stands on, in order to get Trevor Lawrence to don their uniform. So let’s have a look at how that might shape out…. Spoiler. There’s no mention of the Patriots, because just please god no.
Counting down from 5… least to most likely, let’s do it:
5. New York Giants
It’s tough to tell what the main issue is in New York. A lack of talent, a young inexperienced head coach not ideally suited to build the career of a young quarterback, generally not really having a plan springs to mind. Daniel Jones was a reach at number six. Much like the Bears with Mitch Trubisky, there is likely to come a time that the franchise is going to have to walk into the light with their tail between their legs and admit that.
The Giants also held the 17th pick that year, and chose to take Daniel Jones with their first pick at 6. The young Duke quarterback was not exactly on the radar for a top 10 selection, and after the Giants, the next quarterback selected was Dwayne Haskins at 15. So not exactly a desperate hurry to have to take him so high.
The swallow your pride moment is coming, especially if they can’t get DJ the supporting cast he needs. He just looks, bad. Everything he does is very Eli Manning esque without the Super Bowl rings. I know he’s young, but he needs to be performing this season to avoid the Giants having this decision to make.
As it stands, he doesn’t look good enough to pass on Trevor Lawrence. That’s just the reality of it. He’s better than Josh Rosen, but this could be a Kyler Murray Arizona Cardinals situation.
I have the Giants at 5 because Trevor Lawrence doesn’t land with them unless they’re at the one spot. The Giants are not one of the teams that will sell the house to get him. But, if they keep playing badly, and somehow end up above the other team in New York in the draft order, there’s a chance.
4. Minnesota Vikings
Throwing a spanner in the works, the Vikings are probably the most talented team that find themselves near the bottom of the standings. It’s just not clicked for them, and Kirk Cousins looks a tonne more cold than hot right now.
Justin Jefferson is going to be a great receiver in the NFL. Wouldn’t it be great if Trevor Lawrence could throw dimes at him for years.
The issue for Minnesota, is the absolutely hideous Kirk Cousins contract. Cousins has $66 million guaranteed incoming from the Vikings, and either he turns his game on its’ head very quickly, or the Vikings will need to start looking for a way out. Could they trade him? I doubt it. But if they’re bad enough, Trevor Lawrence can sit behind Kirk for… a week. Then take over on his rookie deal, while they find a way out of the Cousins contract.
And there is a way. According to Spotrac, if the Vikings trade Kirk Cousins AFTER June 1, 2021 (this coming offseason) it would cost them only $10 million in dead cap. That’s the same amount as what they would pay in order to cut him 16 games later.
Question is can they find a team willing to take it on? Can they get enough draft capital together to get high enough for Lawrence?
3. Washington Football Team
Picture the rebranding. Washington, currently unidentifiable, and without their quarterback cemented. Everybody is tired of saying the ‘Washington football team’, it’s long, it’s ugly and it has no draw.
Washington have spent the last four seasons building up the defence through the draft. Four years in a row they’ve drafted a defensive lineman pass rush talent in the first round. FOUR. Jonathan Allen in 2017, Daron Payne in 2018, Montez Sweat in 2019, and Chase Young in 2020.
Now they need a signal caller that can run a franchise.
The Dwayne Haskins issue has got super ugly over the last few weeks. Now on a team with a coaching staff that didn’t draft him, and Ron Rivera already inserting the guy he brought with him (Kyle Allen) from Carolina, who’s not much better. Haskins has fallen out of favour, and much like Daniel Jones, was the result of a weak quarterback class in 2019, paired with desperate NFL teams.
Jalen Hurts would have been drafted above both Daniel Jones & Dwayne Haskins talent wise. Instead he was drafted in round two this year. It just so happens that last years draft was really poor for quarterback talent outside of Kyler Murray, and the Giants and Washington got screwed by that.
Washington could rebrand their team, AND bring in the face of said rebranding, all in one beautiful swing. What will it take? Everything. Would it be worth it? Absolutely.
The issue Washington face, is not really having any additional draft picks. They’d have to shine up Dwayne Haskins and convince somebody he’s worth trading for. Or give up another talent or two before the deadline. Don’t be surprised if we start to see a few teams doing this. Every team on this list falls into this category.
2. Jacksonville Jaguars
Gardner Minshew is not the answer. I maintain my stance on that. He’s a late pick, who so happens to have fallen into the starting job because of an unfortunate injury to Nick Foles in week 1.
Everybody then jumped on the Minshew hype train, mainly because of his moustache and not his quarterback play. Minshew is going to give you many more years of Blake Bortles, and now you don’t have the elite defence.
The Jags are going to continue to lose this season, and while I think they’d be hard pushed to lose more than the Jets, I also think they’re best placed to challenge for worst record in the league.
Should they find themselves at number one, there’s absolutely no chance in my mind that you pass on Trevor Lawrence because you have Gardner Minshew. If that happens, and Minshew hasn’t miraculously become elite, then fire everybody. Fire literally everybody if you’re the Jags in their current situation and you pass on Trevor Lawrence.
They stand a chance, but not quite as much chance as these guys…
1. New York Jets
It pains me to write it. I can only hope that there’s no Adam Gase around to butcher Trevor Lawrence’s career.
The Jets currently hold two first round picks, their own, and the Seahawks first rounder which they picked up in the Jamal Adams trade. They’re the only team on the list who are currently very obviously cleaning out the roster. They’re also likely not done yet. Guys like Marcus Maye, who’s out of contract at the end of the season, might also find themselves shopped.
There isn’t a team in the league who looks worse than the Jets right now. We can blame that on the dreadful management by Adam Gase, and the reluctance to fire him by the franchise. Unfortunately, it looks like it’ll be Sam Darnold that pays the price for that.
Do I believe Sam Darnold could still be a franchise quarterback in the NFL? Yes. I don’t think we’ve seen enough to deny him the chance. Is it with the Jets? Not if they have the number one pick. Again, you’d have to be crazy to trade out of the pick with Sam Darnold at the helm. Trevor Lawrence is just too good.
The Jets is easily the most likely landing spot, as much as we might hate it.
Or… he could stay at school another year, and screw the Jets out of the chance to grab him. Is that, perhaps, a spanner in the works…
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